With pandemic travel restrictions largely lifted, the coast is clear for Canada to welcome high levels of immigrants, international students, and temporary foreign workers over the coming months.

Upon imposing COVID travel restrictions in March 2020, Canada prevented many newcomers from being able to enter the country.

There were some exceptions, such as those who received permanent residence and study permit approval prior to the restrictions taking effect, as well as those approved under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. Canada gradually lifted these restrictions, with all of the main restrictions on permanent and temporary residents lifted by June 2021. Despite the restrictions, Canada still saw high newcomer levels in 2021. The signs indicate this is set to continue in 2022, with the next few months set to be particularly strong. This summer will be the first since the start of the pandemic without major travel restrictions impeding newcomers from entering Canada.

Permanent residents: Some 130,000 people could land in Q3 2022

Guided by its Immigration Levels Plan 2022-2024, the Canadian government is currently pursuing the goal of landing some 432,000 new permanent residents this year. Last year, Canada achieved its goal by prioritizing the landings of applicants living in the country.

However, recent Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data indicates the department is now processing more overseas applications. For instance, it has been prioritizing Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) applications this year, which are predominantly submitted by candidates living abroad. This is a function of travel restrictions no longer limiting the ability of new permanent residents from moving to Canada (an obstacle that existed between March 2020 and June 2021).

In the first quarter of 2022, Canada landed nearly 114,000 new permanent residents. A landing is either a person living in Canada converting their temporary status to permanent residence, or an individual outside of Canada moving to Canada with permanent residence status.

The Q1 2022 figure represents an over 60 per cent increase compared to the 74,000 permanent residents that landed in Q1 2021.

By Q3 of last year, Canada’s permanent resident landings increased significantly to 123,000 people between July and September. This can be explained by three factors. First, IRCC was able to ramp-up its processing capacity, and has been able to sustain that capacity ever since. Second, the lifting of travel restrictions on all Confirmation of Permanent Residence (COPR) holders in late June 2021 enabled many who were otherwise ineligible to land in Canada to finally do so in Q3 2021 and beyond. Third, there is a seasonal component to Canadian immigration. New immigrants prefer to arrive during the warmer spring and summer months as opposed to coming to Canada during the colder seasons. As such, prior to the pandemic, Canada tended to experience a 40 per cent increase in permanent residence landings in Q2 and Q3 of each year, before seeing landings decline during Q4 and Q1.

All three of these factors are set to influence new permanent residence landings this summer. As a conservative estimate, we can expect another 100,000 landings in Q3 2022. A more likely estimate is just like last year, we should see over 120,000 landings during this period. It is unlikely we will see an increase of 40 per cent or more due to seasonality, since IRCC processes applications in accordance with its Immigration Levels Plan. That is, processing many more applications that would result in a 40 per cent or more increase in landings this summer would result in Canada far exceeding its immigration levels target for this year.

Nonetheless, we should still see some seasonal aspect kick in. Assuming we see a 20 per cent increase in landings due to the warmer weather, we would have at least 130,000 new permanent residence landings between this July and September.